Curiosity

My interest in the just concluded Victory Central Mall Open Chess Championship in Caloocan City turned into curiosity somewhere in the concluding part of the tournament.

My interest in anticipating who would become the eventual champion in a highly competitive and closely fought battle turned into curiosity as to the theory of chess ratings.

Comparing the initial rankings with the final rankings aroused my inquisitiveness. Let’s look again at the rankings:

INITIAL RANKING
No.1 GM Rogelio Antonio, Jr.
No.2 GM John Paul Gomez
No.3 IM Richard Bitoon
No.4 GM Darwin Laylo
No.5 GM Mark Paragua

Now, let’s look at the top finishers (out of 73 players):

FINAL RANKINGS
1 GM LAYLO Darwin
2 GM GOMEZ John Paul
3 GM PARAGUA Mark
4 IM BITOON Richard
5 GM ANTONIO Rogelio Jr

As I said in my previous post, the eggs were jumbled, but we still have the same basket.

But what if we are to hold the same event – let’s say, next week – with the same names and number of participants?

What is the probability that the tournament ends up with the same top finishers? Can you provide your own take on this?

Okay, I spotted in the list some notable players who I think performed well in the event.

Notable Juniors:
No.18 Alcon John Datu 5.5

Notable Kiddies:
No.31 Jeremiah Alfonso 5
No.32 Paulo Bersamina 5

FINAL RANKINGS

Rk. Name Pts.
1 GM LAYLO Darwin 7
2 GM GOMEZ John Paul 7
3 GM PARAGUA Mark 6.5
4 IM BITOON Richard 6.5
5 GM ANTONIO Rogelio Jr 6.5
6 ARROYO Christian 6.5
7 FM CARLOS Leonardo 6.5
8 IM NADERA Barlo A 6
9 GM GONZALES Jayson 6
10 LEGASPI Rhobel 6
11 CAUSO Deniel 6
12 IM GARMA Chito 6
13 BRANZUELA Ali 6
14 MANAOG Stewart 6
15 LABAY Rainer 6
16 SENADOR Emmanuel 5.5
17 GARMA Edgardo 5.5
18 DATU Alcon John 5.5
19 PORTUGALERA Ric 5.5
20 ANDADOR Rolando 5.5
21 IM NOLTE Rolando 5.5
22 ARGUELLES Efren 5.5
23 BAGAMASBAD Efren 5
24 BITOON Jimson 5
25 FM PACIS Adrian 5
26 MAGA Mirabeau 5
27 EVANGELISTA Ritchie 5
28 RICANA Leodegario 5
29 LLAVANES Ronald 5
30 RUBIO Lloyd 5
31 ALFONSO Jeremiah 5
32 BERSAMINA Paulo 5
33 DIAZ Conrado 5
34 DELA CRUZ Richard 4.5
35 SUELO Roberto Jr 4.5
36 TRAJERA Ryan 4.5
AGAGON Eduardo 4.5
38 ALIDANI Leonardo 4.5
39 PANGILINAN Rolando 4.5
40 MILAGROSA Alexander 4
41 MACALA Allan 4
42 ARMENDI Alfredo Jr 4
43 CAUNTE Juancho 4
44 PEREZ Mirham 4
45 VILLATE Raul 4
46 TUMLOS Lex 4
47 BALTAZAR Melwyn Kenneth 4
48 GUTIERREZ Jun 4
49 ERESTAIN Elmer 4
50 LOPEZ Pepe 4
51 ELORTA David 3.5
52 DIVINAGRACIA Alvin 3.5
53 PATES Rodolfo 3.5
54 OBOGNE Joel 3.5
55 SALUTAN Melvin 3
56 ALVIZ Jaime 3
57 SAGARIO Quirino 3
58 CACHO Robert 3
59 BARCELONA Perlito Jr. 3
60 TIU Sean Mervick 3
61 TOMAS Jazer Joseph 3
62 REBOLDELA Del 3
63 CARINO Raul 2.5
64 RIVERA Joselito 2
65 DE PAZ Deorico Jr. 2
66 LOPEZ Eva 2
67 CUNTAPAY Cris 1.5
68 GUTIERREZ Dennis Iii 1.5
69 AGBUNAG Ryan 1
70 OPANO Virgilio 1
71 CRUZ Michael 0.5
72 IM BANCOD Ronald 0
73 CAPUYON Marcelino 0